Prediction market bets on next companies for U.S. government equity stakes

Polymarket traders have placed the highest probabilities on three companies receiving future U.S. government equity investments. Anduril leads the list at 42 percent, followed by IonQ at 39 percent and Micron at 34 percent.

Current government holdings The U.S. government holds equity positions worth tens of billions of dollars across more than half a dozen companies. Its largest position is a 10 percent stake in Intel announced last August, valued at nearly $9 billion at purchase and now worth approximately $52.3 billion.

Last week the government also announced equity investments in several quantum computing companies, including IBM and Rigetti Computing.

Leading candidates according to bettors Anduril has a 10-year U.S.

Army contract that could reach $20 billion and has been linked to work on a proposed missile defense system. IonQ was not included in the recent quantum investments but has reported revenue growth and raised its year-end guidance, with shares up 52 percent year-to-date.

Micron received public mention after a rally in its shares; the company has seen its stock rise 230 percent year-to-date. Anthropic and Nvidia rank lower on the prediction market at 22 percent and 18 percent respectively. Anthropic was previously designated a supply chain risk and barred as a vendor before filing suit against the Department of Defense.

Nvidia has existing contracts to supply AI technology to the Defense Department, Energy Department, CIA, and NSA.