Prediction Markets Grow in Popularity as Accuracy Compared to Experts

Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have increased in popularity over the past few months. The platforms allow participants to trade contracts on the outcomes of future events. Their growth has prompted questions about how well market prices reflect actual probabilities compared with assessments from specialists.

Studies are comparing the track records of these markets against expert forecasts on the same questions. The analysis covers multiple topics where both market prices and expert opinions are available. Results from the comparison are expected to show where each method performs better. The findings could influence how organizations use forecasts from markets versus traditional expert panels.