Prediction Markets Show Shifts in Los Angeles Mayoral Primary

Prediction markets have recorded movement in the Los Angeles mayoral race ahead of the June 2 primary. Incumbent odds have declined from above 70 percent earlier in the week to 59 percent on Polymarket, while one challenger has risen to 21 percent. Similar shifts appear on Kalshi, where the incumbent sits near 61 percent and the same challenger near 23 percent.

A UC Berkeley/LA Times poll conducted May 19-24 showed the incumbent at 26 percent, another candidate at 25 percent, and the challenger at 22 percent among likely voters.

The challenger, who entered after losing property in the Palisades Fire, has emphasized enforcement against homelessness encampments, mandatory addiction treatment, government audits, and accountability for spending on recovery efforts. The incumbent has cited an 18 percent reduction in street homelessness, lower violent crime, and increased housing and film production.

Governor Gavin Newsom endorsed the incumbent five days before the primary. The endorsement followed reports of underwater approval ratings for the incumbent in some surveys.

Angeles uses a two-round system in which the top two candidates advance to a November 3 runoff if no one receives more than 50 percent. The incumbent remains favored to advance due to name recognition and the city's Democratic lean. The challenger has raised over $3.2 million recently, including $2.7 million in one reporting period, mostly from small donors.

Early voting is underway, with ballots due by June 2.