finance
U.S.-Linked Wallets Led Polymarket Political Trading with $571 Million Despite IP Block
On-chain analysis shows U.S. wallets led all countries in volume on the offshore platform over the past year. Activity concentrated in geopolitics contracts that U.S. venues do not list.
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-linked wallets accounted for $571 million in notional volume on Polymarket political markets in the 12 months through July 5, 2026, exceeding volume from any other country, according to data from on-chain analysis firm Allium. Hong Kong-linked wallets ranked second with $422 million over the same period. Polymarket blocks U.S.
Users by IP address because it cannot legally serve them. Allium identifies wallet locations through on-chain behavior rather than IP data, allowing it to tag only about 6 percent of political-market wallets to a specific country. U.S.
Wallets directed 46 percent of their volume to geopolitics markets, compared with 36 percent platform-wide. Election markets represented 16 percent of U.S. volume versus 32 percent for the platform overall.
Five of the twelve largest markets traded by U.S. wallets concerned the Iran war. The single biggest U.S. position was a $20.8 million contract on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit.
On resolved markets, U.S. wallets selected the correct outcome 81.3 percent for all wallets. At one point U.S.S.
Invasion of Iran while the rest of the market placed 26 percent. Polymarket did not respond to CoinDesk’s request for comment ahead of U.S. market hours on July 5, 2026.
