U.S. President Has Predicted Iran Deal 38 Times Since March

The U.S. president told reporters early Tuesday that the United States and Iran were in the "final throes" of an agreement that could be signed in two or three days, with the Strait of Hormuz reopening immediately upon signing. A CNN count shows the statement was at least the 38th time the president has predicted an Iran deal since March 23.

The original ceasefire announced on April 7 was meant to give both sides two weeks to finalize a deal.

Prediction market contracts on a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 traded near 22 percent on Tuesday, while the July 31 version sat at roughly 36 percent. A separate market on a permanent U.S.-Iran peace by June 30 has drifted into the low 20s. The president acknowledged friction in an interview over the weekend, citing a "side scuffle" between Israel and Iran, before returning to the two-or-three-days timeline on Tuesday.

Hormuz has been effectively closed since late February and moves around a fifth of seaborne oil. Brent crude recently traded around $86 a barrel, down from above $110 in mid-May. Executives at one major oil company have warned that global inventories may be running low. The United States Oil Fund LP has roughly doubled year-to-date.