Prediction Markets
60 stories related to this topic, newest first.
thehindubusinessline.comWintermute Begins Quoting Markets on Event Contracts
Wintermute, a London-based trading firm handling over $3.5 trillion in annual volume, announced it will provide liquidity on event contracts. The move follows growth in prediction market volume to $60 billion this year.
CoinDeskKalshi Sues Minnesota to Block Law Banning Prediction Market Platforms
Kalshi filed a federal lawsuit against Minnesota seeking to stop enforcement of a new state law that will criminalize operating and advertising prediction market platforms starting August 1. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a similar motion on May 19.
thehindubusinessline.comPrediction Markets Show Shifts in Los Angeles Mayoral Primary
Betting markets indicate changes in probabilities for the June 2 primary. Incumbent odds have declined while one challenger has gained ground.
restofworld.orgPolymarket Traders See 57 Percent Chance of U.S.-Iran Peace Deal by July 2026
Betting markets show declining odds for a permanent peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Traders on Polymarket currently assign a 57 percent probability to such a deal being reached by July 31, 2026.
marketwatch.comKalshi Launches American Power Index Tracking Political Control
Prediction market platform Kalshi introduced a new index that combines congressional and presidential control with market forecasts. The measure produces a single score ranging from +50D to +50R.
SemaforSemafor Column Questions Purpose of Prediction Markets and Retail Trading Products
A Semafor Business column examines whether current retail trading products serve broad public needs. The piece contrasts prediction markets and leveraged funds with traditional index products and utility hedging practices.
BenzingaGaming Group Says Prediction Markets Cost States $1 Billion in Tax Revenue
The American Gaming Association estimates states and tribes have lost over $1 billion in tax revenue to prediction market platforms. Association president and CEO Bill Miller said the platforms function as unregulated sports betting and called the CFTC a rogue agency.
Prediction market bets on next companies for U.S. government equity stakes
Bettors on Polymarket have placed wagers on which firms the U.S. government may next acquire equity positions in. The administration has already taken stakes worth tens of billions of dollars in several public companies.
wallstreetpit.comBitcoin Faces 83-84% Chance of Falling to $70,000 Before $90,000
Prediction markets now assign an 83-84% probability that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 before climbing back above $90,000. The assessment comes from Polymarket and is being tracked by multiple crypto-focused accounts.
thehindubusinessline.comPrediction market traders mostly lose money, opinion column states
An opinion piece argues that most participants in prediction markets lose money and that this outcome is a normal feature of such platforms.
ibtimes.comDemocratic Odds in Maine Senate Race Fall on Prediction Markets
Betting markets lowered the implied probability that a Democrat will win Maine's U.S. Senate seat. Public polls still show the likely Democratic nominee ahead of the Republican incumbent.
Abc NewsGoogle Employee Charged With Using Inside Information to Bet on Search Trends
Federal prosecutors unsealed a criminal complaint Wednesday charging a Google software engineer with using confidential company data to place bets on a prediction market platform. The employee allegedly profited more than $1 million before his arrest in New York.
artnews.comKalshi Adds Art Auction Contracts to Prediction Market Platform
Kalshi introduced event contracts tied to art auction prices on Tuesday. The new markets cover individual lot sales and annual records at major houses. Traders can now wager on whether any work exceeds current benchmarks.
abcnews.go.comHouse Oversight Chairman Opens Investigation Into Prediction Market Trading
House Oversight Chairman James Comer announced an investigation into whether traders on prediction markets used nonpublic information to profit. The inquiry follows reporting by FOX.
CoinDeskPresident Trump says CFTC should keep exclusive authority over prediction markets
President Trump posted on Truth Social that the CFTC must retain exclusive authority over prediction markets. The statement follows lawsuits between the agency and several states over regulatory jurisdiction.
South China Morning PostIndonesia Blocks Polymarket Access Over Online Gambling Rules
Indonesia's communications and digital ministry blocked the predictions platform Polymarket after it hosted bets on the end of President Prabowo Subianto's term. The ministry classified the site as an online gambling service that violates Indonesian law.
thehindubusinessline.comArthur Hayes Says Prediction Markets Should Allow All Information
Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom Fund, stated that prediction markets should not restrict insider information. He argued that prices should reflect all available data except in cases of theft or fraud.
thehindu.comPolymarket Shows Bennett Ahead of Netanyahu in Israeli Election Odds
A prediction market platform reports Bennett at 40 percent and Netanyahu at 36 percent for the next Israeli election. More than $11.3 million has been wagered on the outcome, with the market scheduled to close December 31, 2026.
finance.yahoo.comPolymarket shows 75 percent chance Bitcoin falls to $70,000 before rising to $90,000
A prediction market platform recorded a 75 percent probability that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 before climbing to $90,000. The figures come from trading activity on Polymarket.
CoinDeskHouse Oversight Committee Opens Insider Trading Probe Into Prediction Markets
The House Oversight Committee is investigating Kalshi and Polymarket after concerns that government employees may have used nonpublic information to profit on event contracts. Chairman James Comer sent letters Friday requesting internal records on identity verification and tradin…
usethebitcoin.comCompanies Invest in Prediction Markets Despite Regulatory Uncertainty
States and the federal government are disputing regulatory authority over prediction markets. Companies including Flutter Entertainment, DraftKings, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood have stated they will continue expanding their platforms.
CoinDeskPolymarket Reports $520,000 Drained From Polygon Smart Contracts
Blockchain investigator ZachXBT reported that more than $520,000 was moved from two Polymarket smart contracts on the Polygon network. Polymarket said the incident involved a private key compromise of an internal operations wallet and that user funds and market resolutions remain…
english.elpais.comPolymarket Seeks Government Approval for Prediction Markets in Japan
Polymarket is lobbying Japanese officials to authorize prediction markets by 2030. The company aims to secure regulatory clearance for its platform in the country.
webpronews.comPolymarket Contract Shows Signs of Exploitation With Over $660K Taken
Blockchain monitor @lookonchain reported that Polymarket's contract appears to be exploited. More than $660,000 has been removed so far according to the same report.
reason.comMinnesota Law Bans Prediction Markets and Criminalizes Participation
Minnesota enacted a law that prohibits the operation and use of prediction markets within the state. The measure makes it a felony to create, control, operate, support, or advertise such platforms.
ibtimes.co.ukCFTC Sues Six States Over Prediction Market Regulation
Sixteen states are in legal proceedings with prediction market platforms. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sued six states to assert exclusive federal jurisdiction over event contracts.
CoinDeskBubblemaps Reports 80 High-Accuracy Bets on Polymarket Ahead of U.S. Iran Actions
Bubblemaps analysts identified 80 bets on Polymarket with a 98 percent win rate on U.S. military actions against Iran. The findings prompted renewed calls for legislation restricting war-related prediction market contracts.
CoinDeskPolymarket Files to Offer Parlay Contracts on U.S. Sports Events
Prediction market platform Polymarket filed with the CFTC to list combinatorial outcome contracts that resolve only if every leg of an underlying contract settles to the specified outcome. The filing states the contracts would be available no earlier than May 21, 2026.
Washington ExaminerCFTC Sues Minnesota to Block Prediction Market Ban
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed suit Tuesday to stop Minnesota from enforcing a new law that would criminalize operating or advertising prediction markets starting August 1. The federal regulator argues the state law conflicts with its exclusive authority over such…
SemaforHouse Financial Services Chairman Says Congress Should Wait on Prediction Market Rules
Chairman French Hill said his committee is educating lawmakers on existing oversight of prediction markets by the CFTC and SEC. He said court cases between states and the Trump administration should play out first.
thehindubusinessline.comPrediction Markets Raise Questions on Investing Versus Gambling Distinction
Prediction markets allow users to bet on election outcomes and other events. Congress may need to clarify regulatory boundaries between these platforms and traditional gambling.
catholicnewsagency.comSenator Introduces Amendment to Ban Government Officials From Prediction Market Trading
Senator Elissa Slotkin introduced an amendment on Tuesday to prevent insider trading by U.S. government officials on prediction markets. The proposal follows reports of large profits from bets on U.S. military actions in Iran and Venezuela.
manilatimes.netPolymarket Adds Prediction Markets on Private Companies With Nasdaq Data
Polymarket has launched event contracts on private-company milestones including valuations and IPO timing for firms such as OpenAI and Anthropic. Nasdaq Private Market will supply the resolution data and release valuation figures publicly at no cost.
manilatimes.netPolymarket Adds Prediction Markets for Private Company Valuations
Polymarket launched prediction markets on Tuesday allowing users to trade contracts tied to private company valuations, IPO plans and secondary activity. The platform partnered with Nasdaq Private Market to offer the new service.
BenzingaMinnesota Enacts First Statewide Felony Ban on Prediction Markets
Minnesota became the first state to criminalize prediction markets with a new law that takes effect August 1. The Trump administration filed suit within 24 hours, challenging the statute's reach over platforms, data providers, and sports leagues.
thehindubusinessline.comKalshi Predicts Wider Use of Prediction Markets in Finance
Kalshi Legal Counsel Valeria Vouterakou said prediction markets are gaining institutional adoption and platform integrations. The company cited links with Interactive Brokers and traditional exchanges as evidence of mainstreaming.
dailyexcelsior.comCongress Considers Bills Targeting Campaign Fund Use in Prediction Markets
Lawmakers have introduced more than a dozen bills this year addressing prediction market platforms. One measure under preparation would bar the use of campaign funds for betting on such platforms.
NprHouse Delays Action on Prediction Market Ban Despite Bipartisan Calls
House members and staff remain able to trade on prediction markets while the Senate and White House have restricted such activity. Several lawmakers have introduced measures to prohibit the practice amid reports of insider trading.
citizen.co.zaKalshi Announces $2 Million Donation to National Council on Problem Gambling
Kalshi will provide $2 million over two years to the National Council on Problem Gambling. The funds support a new initiative on trader health and safety. The announcement comes as prediction markets expand and face regulatory questions from state officials.
news.google.comPolymarket Faces Scrutiny From 60 Minutes And Wall Street Journal
Two major news outlets examined Polymarket's operations on Sunday night. 60 Minutes investigated potential insider trading while The Wall Street Journal reviewed the platform's dispute resolution system.
thehindubusinessline.comPrediction Markets See Over $1 Billion in War-Related Bets This Year
More than $1 billion has been wagered on military outcomes on prediction markets this year. Analytics firm Bubblemaps identified nine linked accounts that won 98 percent of over 80 bets on U.S. military actions involving Iran.
wealthmanagement.comPrediction Market Shows Democrats Favored to Win U.S. House Majority
A prediction market platform reported that traders expect Democrats to regain control of the U.S. House. The assessment comes with less than six months remaining before the November midterm elections.
thehindubusinessline.comPrediction markets expand from forecasting tools to betting platforms
Prediction markets are growing beyond simple forecasting systems and now function as betting platforms. The shift raises questions about how these tools operate at larger scale.
ndtv.comRegulators Seek Data from Kalshi and Polymarket on Political and Military Wagers
U.S. regulators have requested information from prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket regarding bets on political events and military operations. The inquiries focus on compliance with existing rules governing such contracts.
skysports.comPrediction Markets Surpass $1 Billion in Wagers on Military Outcomes
More than $1 billion has been wagered this year on prediction markets tied to military decisions and outcomes. CBS News reported that 60 Minutes is investigating bets with information appearing too specific for civilian outsiders. The investigation airs this Sunday.
reviewjournal.comLas Vegas Casino Cancels Prediction Market Conference
A Las Vegas casino canceled a booking for the Predict 2026 conference days after signing the agreement, citing Nevada's regulatory position on prediction markets. The Nevada Gaming Commission has sued one company over sports event contracts and briefly barred a platform from oper…
newrepublic.comTreasury Secretary Bessent Says China Will Help Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China will work behind the scenes to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, citing Beijing's interest as the world's largest oil importer. Bessent made the remarks from Beijing during a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinpin…
BenzingaTrump Holds Beijing Summit With Xi Jinping, Discusses Taiwan Arms Package and Maintains Strategic Ambiguity
President Donald Trump revealed that Xi Jinping directly asked whether the U.S. would defend Taiwan during their Friday summit. Trump responded that only he knows the answer and stated he made no commitment either way, while pausing approval of a $14 billion arms package to Taiwa…
theshelbyreport.comCFTC Chairman Announces Enforcement Push Against U.S. Users Accessing Offshore Prediction Markets via VPNs
Michael Selig told WIRED the agency is staffing up, deploying AI tools and pursuing hundreds of insider trading tips as it surveils global prediction markets including Polymarket. The CFTC is examining suspicious trades tied to geopolitical events and will apply extraterritorial…
New York PostSEC and CFTC Agree to Divide Oversight of Crypto Assets and Prediction Markets
SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chief Michael Selig have forged a cooperation agreement to end years of regulatory clashes over digital assets. The agencies are mapping clear boundaries, with the CFTC overseeing event contracts and the SEC leading on securities-based derivatives.…
Interactive Brokers to Offer Election, Climate and Economic Event Contracts via Partnership With Kalshi, CME Group and ForecastEx
Interactive Brokers is launching a prediction-markets platform that lets users trade yes-or-no contracts on elections, climate and the economy. Founder Thomas Peterffy said institutional interest is rising, particularly for hedging commodities and climate-related risks. Kalshi re…
nypost.comDemocrats' House Flip Odds Decline After Southern States Redraw Maps
Prediction markets have lowered the probability of Democrats gaining a House majority in the 2026 midterms following redistricting in several Republican-led Southern states. Kalshi's odds fell from 86 percent in mid-April to 74 percent, while Polymarket's dropped from 87 percent…
CnbcSEC Extends Review Period for 24 Proposed Prediction Market ETFs
The SEC has postponed the debut of 24 prediction market exchange-traded funds, including three funds proposed by Roundhill Investments. Roundhill CEO Dave Mazza discussed the products' differences, strategy and market demand on CNBC's 'ETF Edge'. Citi's Drew Pettit also joined th…
rnz.co.nzCFTC Signs First Data-Sharing Agreement With Major League Baseball
Chairman Michael Selig announced the March 2026 agreement with MLB while speaking at the FINRA conference on May 12, 2026. The CFTC has sued about five or six states over event contracts and is coordinating with the SEC on prediction-market products. Selig argued that CFTC-regula…
news.ycombinator.comPrediction Markets See Nearly $9M in Wagers on 2025 US Measles Case Totals
Prediction markets have seen heavy wagering on the spread of measles in the United States, with some evidence the forecasts are accurate enough to aid disease modelling. The markets trace their origins to 1988 University of Iowa research on election forecasting before expanding t…
etftrends.comSEC Extends Review Period for 24 Proposed Prediction-Market ETFs
The Securities and Exchange Commission halted the automatic effectiveness of 24 prediction markets ETFs on Tuesday, just before their 75-day window expired. Roundhill Investments, Bitwise and GraniteShares had sought to offer funds tied to elections, economic data and other real-…
onwardstate.com**CFTC to Allow 50-State Access for Sports Event Contracts Under Designated Contract Market Framework**
Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky announced the sports betting platform will shift from a 35-state sweepstakes model to a Designated Contract Market framework. The move comes as panelists at Consensus Miami 2026 argued sports betting should be regulated as a financial product. Adam Mastr…
Senate Unanimously Bans Lawmakers and Staff From Prediction Markets
The Senate passed a resolution sponsored by Sen. Bernie Moreno of Ohio that instantly bans senators and staff from trading on prediction markets. The measure passed via unanimous consent late last month. Republican Rep. Nancy Mace questioned why a similar ban has not been enacted…
thenation.comKalshi and Madison Square Garden Announce Multi-Year Partnership
Kalshi will become the official prediction market partner of Madison Square Garden under a multi-year agreement. The deal names Kalshi as an official partner of the Garden and includes plans to create fan-focused prediction markets tied to events at the venue. The companies annou…
TechCrunchKalshi Reaches $22 Billion Valuation After Raising $1 Billion
Prediction market platform Kalshi announced a $1 billion Series F funding round on May 7, 2026, doubling its valuation from five months earlier. The round was led by Coatue with participation from Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz and Paradigm. Kalshi reported annualized revenue excee…