Topic
Prediction Markets
60 stories related to this topic, newest first.
nypost.comfinance3 days ago
Wall Street Firms Restrict Employee Trading on Prediction Markets
Goldman Sachs has joined other financial firms in limiting how employees can use prediction market platforms. The restrictions address potential conflicts of interest and regulatory concerns.
cointelegraph.combusiness3 days ago
Polymarket Affiliate Seeks License for Margin Trading to U.S. Users
Polymarket's U.S. affiliate applied for a futures commission merchant license to enable margin trading. The move follows Kalshi's clearance in March and comes as prediction market volumes grow rapidly.
nypost.comtechnology4 days ago
Kalshi Blocks Most Campaign Staff Trades but One Staffer Completed a Bet on Their Race
Kalshi cross-references Federal Election Commission records to flag and block campaign staffers from trading on their own races. The company reported blocking dozens of attempts since May 2026. At least one operative listed in FEC data placed a trade despite the system.
finance5 days ago
Polymarket Launches U.S. Marketing Campaign After Four-Year Ban
The prediction market platform has begun a social media and partnership campaign to rebuild its presence in the United States. The effort follows a four-year prohibition and a December launch of a CFTC-supervised mobile app.
CoinDeskbusiness7 days ago
Coinbase AI Alert on Norway vs Brazil Match Sent Hours Before Kickoff
Coinbase issued an AI-generated alert claiming Norway defeated Brazil 3-2 hours before the July 6 match began. The company said it corrected the error and updated its systems. The incident occurred as Coinbase expands prediction markets to U.S. users.
nypost.comfinance8 days ago
U.S.-Linked Wallets Led Polymarket Political Trading with $571 Million Despite IP Block
On-chain analysis shows U.S. wallets led all countries in volume on the offshore platform over the past year. Activity concentrated in geopolitics contracts that U.S. venues do not list.
benzinga.comscience8 days ago
New California Wildfire Prediction Market Opens with Simulated Trading Only, Real-Money Betting Pending
A new platform called Wyldfyre opened simulated trading on California fires using NASA and federal perimeter data. Earlier, Polymarket hosted nearly 20 wildfire questions in January 2025 that drew $1.2 million in bets. Federal and state agencies said they do not use such data for…
CoinDeskbusiness9 days ago
ESMA clarifies when prediction-market contracts fall under EU binary-options rules
The European Securities and Markets Authority said on July 4 that certain event contracts could breach the bloc's binary options prohibition when sold to retail clients as financial instruments. Firms must evaluate products by their features rather than labels.
Semaforworld11 days ago
Spotify requests removal of its logo from two prediction market sites
Spotify asked Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its logo after users allegedly manipulated streaming data to influence wagers. The company also deleted 500,000 streams from one song linked to the activity.
vox.compolitics11 days ago
Polymarket Bettor Places $400,000 Wager on Russian Leader's Removal by Year-End
A single anonymous account on the prediction platform Polymarket placed roughly $400,000 in bets that a Russian leader will leave office before December 31. The wager was reported by Forbes on July 2, 2026.
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Substrate placeholder — needs reviewfinance16 days ago
Polymarket phishing attack took $3.1 million from 11 wallets
Blockchain intelligence firm AMLBotHQ reported Saturday that roughly $3.1 million in PUSD was stolen from 11 user wallets on the prediction market platform. The funds were moved from Polygon to Ethereum, and the company pledged full refunds.
usethebitcoin.combusiness17 days ago
Polymarket Launches Audit of Promotional Videos After Wall Street Journal Report on Misleading Content
Polymarket said it is auditing its promotional videos after a Wall Street Journal investigation found the company paid creators to post content that falsely showed users winning nearly $1.9 million. A consumer protection firm filed a lawsuit against the operator and two executive…
New York Postpolitics17 days ago
Kalshi Gave Trump Jr. $300,000 in Shares After He Joined as Adviser
Prediction market Kalshi transferred about $300,000 worth of shares to Donald Trump Jr. after he became a strategic adviser early last year. The transfer occurred when the company was valued below $2 billion.
nbcnews.comtechnology17 days ago
Two senators seek federal probe of Polymarket social-media promotions
Two U.S. senators have requested a federal investigation into Polymarket’s social-media activity after a Wall Street Journal report described the prediction market’s marketing practices as deceptive. The lawmakers cited concerns over the platform’s promotion of fake bets.
CoinDeskbusiness19 days ago
Kalshi Seeks Funding at Roughly $40 Billion Valuation, Nearly Double Prior Target
The prediction market operator targets nearly double its prior $22 billion valuation. The round could close in the third quarter of 2026.
nypost.comfinance19 days ago
Prediction market operator sues Illinois governor over new state law
Kalshi filed suit against Illinois Governor Pritzker and state officials, arguing that federal oversight supersedes a state law scheduled to take effect July 1. The complaint seeks to block enforcement of the measure.
pymnts.comtechnology20 days agoUpdated
Meta Developing Arena App for Event Forecasts Using Points System, Has Not Ruled Out Real-Money Betting
Meta is building an experimental prediction-market-style app called Arena that would let users forecast outcomes in politics, sports, entertainment and world affairs. The project uses a points system and revives an earlier Forecast product from 2020. CoinDesk reported the details…
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New York Posttechnology19 days agoUpdated
Meta Is Developing a New Prediction-Markets App Called Arena
Meta is building an experimental prediction markets app called Arena. Mark Zuckerberg directed the project, which aims to rival Polymarket and Kalshi. The app may start with a points system before considering real currency.
Reasonworld20 days ago
Polymarket Allegedly Spent Nearly $2 Million on Fake Trades to Inflate Liquidity
A Wall Street Journal probe found $1.9 million in fabricated bets used to promote the platform. The findings have prompted scrutiny of Polymarket's marketing practices.
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Substrate placeholder — needs reviewbusiness22 days agoUpdated
Polymarket Paid Creators for Over 1,100 Videos of Simulated Bets and Wins
The prediction market platform directed creators to film fabricated wins on replica sites. A Wall Street Journal review found the depicted trades would have lost money in 118 cases totaling $166,000.
The Guardianpolitics22 days ago
Prediction market platforms expand across U.S. states with limited problem-gambling resources
Online prediction market platforms are operating in states where gambling has long been restricted, while public funding for addiction services remains limited or nonexistent in many areas. Advocates say the gap between market growth and treatment resources is widening.
CoinDeskfinance24 days ago
Charles Schwab to Offer Yes-or-No Options on S&P 500 via Cboe Partnership
The brokerage will let customers wager on whether the index closes above or below preset levels. Rollout is planned for the coming months.
CoinDeskfinance26 days ago
Kentucky Sues Prediction Market Platforms Over Sports Betting
Kentucky filed suit against two prediction market companies, alleging they offered unlicensed sports betting. The state also cited the platforms' partners for failing to provide required gambling-addiction resources.
decrypt.cosports27 days ago
Prediction Markets Draw New Bettors Ahead of 2026 World Cup
Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have grown in popularity since the last World Cup. Bettors can now wager on match outcomes and tournament results through these platforms. The 2026 tournament marks the first major soccer event since their expansion.
ai28 days ago
Kalshi Deploys Internal AI Agent Harrison for Contract Design
The prediction market platform has developed an AI system to assist with contract creation and risk assessment as trading volume grows.
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Cnbcfinance28 days ago
U.S.-Iran deal lifts Hormuz naval blockade, restores normal traffic
Prediction market odds that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before August reached 58 percent after President Trump announced a memorandum of understanding with Iran. The agreement includes removal of the U.S. naval blockade and reopening of the strait a…
CoinDeskfinance29 days ago
House Committee Holds Hearing on Crypto Tax Bills as CFTC Issues Prediction Market Proposal
The House Ways and Means Committee held a hearing on digital asset tax legislation. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission published a proposal for regulating prediction markets.
thehindubusinessline.comfinance30 days ago
Coalition sues Kentucky over 14.25% prediction market tax
A coalition including Kalshi, Crypto.com and Polymarket filed suit Friday against Kentucky's new excise tax on prediction market operators. The 14.25% levy applies to transaction fees and exceeds the state's 9.75% tax on horse-track wagers.
finance31 days ago
Polymarket Trader Places $500,000 Bet on U.S. World Cup Opener Outcome
A Polymarket account identified as initial77a has placed a wager exceeding $500,000 that the U.S. men's national team will not win its opening match against Paraguay. The bet would return approximately $972,000 if successful.
Semaforpolitics31 days ago
CFTC Chair Weighs Lawsuits Against States Regulating Prediction Markets
Mike Selig said the agency is evaluating legal action beyond Minnesota and would welcome a Supreme Court ruling on federal jurisdiction. He also outlined proposed rules that would restrict sports wagers and bar contracts on war, terrorism, and assassinations.
Wiredbusiness32 days ago
Study Estimates 30 Percent of Polymarket Volume From U.S. Traders
A Rutgers statistician found U.S. users routed between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion through the offshore platform between May 2025 and April 2026 despite a 2022 ban.
BBC Newsbusiness33 days agoUpdated
Kalshi Implements Employer Disclosure Rules on High-Risk Prediction Markets to Screen Presumptive Insiders
The prediction market operator will collect work information from users on markets it flags for insider-trading risk and will screen out presumptive insiders before trades are placed.
CoinDeskfinance33 days ago
CFTC Proposes First U.S. Prediction Market Rule for Public-Interest Reviews
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a notice of proposed rulemaking on Wednesday that outlines a process for reviewing whether event contracts meet the federal public-interest standard. The proposal covers contracts on prediction market platforms including those opera…
Bloombergfinance33 days ago
CFTC Proposes Restrictions on Prediction Market Contracts
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a draft rule Wednesday that would bar certain event contracts tied to war, terrorism, and assassination. The measure targets prediction markets that currently allow trading on those outcomes.
cointelegraph.compolitics33 days ago
Trump Regulators Propose New Oversight Rules for Prediction Markets
Regulators under President Trump have drafted new guidelines for prediction markets that preserve most sports betting while targeting obvious manipulation risks.
New York Posttechnology34 days ago
Kalshi Adopts Employer Verification and Risk Scoring for Insider-Risk Prediction Markets
Kalshi will require users placing certain wagers to disclose their employers starting in the coming weeks. The policy targets markets with elevated insider-trading or manipulation risk.
app.buzzsumo.compolitics34 days ago
Kalshi Mandates Employer Disclosure on Sensitive Markets and Adds Whistleblower Tools After Polymarket Insider-Trading Case
The prediction market platform introduced employment verification and risk scoring for sensitive contracts effective immediately after its advisory committee recommended tighter controls.
usethebitcoin.combusiness34 days ago
Kalshi to Collect Employment Data, Bar Presumptive Insiders from High-Risk Prediction Markets
Kalshi said Tuesday it will require employment information from users trading in markets scored for insider-trading risk and will bar presumptive insiders from those contracts.
theconversation.comworld34 days ago
Kalshi to Require Employment Data for Certain Event Contracts
The prediction market platform will collect employment information from users placing bets on contracts tied to companies or economic indicators. The measure aims to reduce the risk of insider trading on its platform.
thehindubusinessline.comfinance34 days ago
U.S. President Has Predicted Iran Deal 38 Times Since March
The U.S. president repeated a prediction that an Iran agreement could be signed within days. A CNN count shows this marks at least the 38th such statement since March 23.
Semaforworld34 days ago
Spanish Soccer Club's Relegation Insurance Traded on Kalshi Prediction Market
A Spanish soccer team's insurance policy against relegation was transferred to the Kalshi prediction market after being placed with a broker. The club said it had no knowledge of the transfer and did not place a bet.
politics35 days ago
Kalshi and Polymarket bar paid creators from questioning election results
The two prediction-market platforms updated policies to prohibit affiliates from denying election outcomes or spreading related claims. The companies asked some creators to remove posts or lose sponsorship after recent California primary coverage.
nbcnews.compolitics35 days ago
Polymarket Traders See Over 60% Chance of U.S.-Brokered Iran-Israel Ceasefire by July
Betting markets show traders still assign more than 60% probability to a new peace agreement or ceasefire extension before the end of July, down roughly 14 percentage points after recent fighting.
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usethebitcoin.comworld35 days ago
Prediction Markets Grow Rapidly Among Young Men, But Most Users Lose Money Amid Insider-Trading Cases
CBS News reported that young men make up the majority of users on major prediction market platforms. Data shows six in ten Kalshi users are between 18 and 34, with roughly three million of four million active accounts belonging to men.
New York Posttechnology35 days ago
Prediction Markets Ask Influencers to Remove Posts Questioning Los Angeles Election Results
Kalshi and Polymarket directed paid partners to delete social media posts that cast doubt on the outcome of the Los Angeles mayoral election. The platforms cited internal rules that prohibit affiliates from questioning the integrity of election results.
thehindubusinessline.compolitics35 days ago
Status Conference Scheduled in First Alleged Insider-Trading Case Involving U.S. Soldier and Polymarket
Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke faces charges of using classified information on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to place 13 bets on Polymarket. He pleaded not guilty in April and returns to court on June 8, 2026.
CoinDeskfinance37 days ago
Quantitative Trading Firms Build Dedicated Prediction Market Desks
DRW, Wintermute and IMC have posted job listings for traders focused on prediction markets. The firms seek staff to monitor prices across platforms and exploit short-term pricing gaps rather than forecast event outcomes.
thehindubusinessline.comworld37 days ago
Polymarket dispute resolution faces trader review over linked accounts
A review of Polymarket disputes found that accounts deciding outcomes were tied to bets in the same market in nearly 20 percent of cases. The findings have prompted traders to examine how resolutions are reached.
Semafortechnology38 days ago
Kalshi asks paid influencers to delete posts on Los Angeles mayoral election
Kalshi directed some paid influencers to remove X posts that questioned the integrity of the Los Angeles mayoral primary. The posts promoted prediction market odds while suggesting late mail-in ballots were being counted unfairly.
Substrate placeholder — needs reviewtechnology38 days ago
House Administration Committee Chair Works on Bill to Ban Lawmakers from Election Prediction Market Bets
Rep. Bryan Steil said he is drafting legislation that would prohibit current and former federal lawmakers and candidates from betting on elections and policy outcomes on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The measure would be attached to a separate bill already approved by…
Benzingafinance38 days ago
Polymarket CMO Paid Over $2.5M via Personal PayPal to Influencers Who Promoted Platform on X
A Politico investigation published June 5, 2026, found Matthew Modabber transferred at least $350,000 to content creators between January 2025 and February 2026. Total transfers from the account exceeded $2.5 million.
benzinga.comfinance38 days ago
Polymarket Executive Paid Hundreds of Thousands to Influencers Across Political Spectrum
A senior executive at the prediction market platform sent hundreds of thousands of dollars to social media influencers. One recipient said the company supplied posts and directed promotion of specific bets.
Semaforworld39 days ago
Spanish Soccer Club Hedged Relegation Risk With Multimillion-Dollar Kalshi Bet, Then Won Final Game to Stay in La Liga
Owners of a La Liga club facing relegation bet against their own team on Kalshi. The club won its final match 1-0 and stayed in the top tier.
cryptoslate.comfinance39 days ago
Kalshi Launches Crypto Perpetual Futures on Prediction Market Platform
Kalshi is testing a new interface that lets high-volume traders track volumes, order books, and multiple positions in one view. The product is in alpha testing and has no announced launch date.
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finance39 days ago
Polymarket Resolves May Bitcoin-Sale Contract as No, June Contract as Yes After UMA Vote on Disclosure Date
UMA token holders voted that Strategy's June 1 disclosure date determined contract resolution. The May 31 market resolved No and the June 30 market resolved Yes.
forbes.comfinance40 days ago
George Santos Places Bet on Polymarket About His Event Attendance
The prediction platform is terminating its contract after Kalshi flagged trades on whether Santos would attend the State of the Union. Federal regulators have opened an investigation into possible insider trading.
forbes.comfinance40 days ago
Prediction Market Gave 75% Odds of Santos Missing State of the Union; Kalshi Reports Trades to DOJ and CFTC
Kalshi referred former Rep. George Santos to federal authorities after detecting suspicious trades ahead of President Donald Trump’s Feb. 24 State of the Union address. The platform also reported the trades to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
New York Postpolitics40 days ago
DOJ Investigates Santos' Kalshi State of the Union Bet
Federal authorities are examining whether the former New York congressman placed bets on a prediction market about his own presence at President Trump's February address. The inquiry centers on possible insider trading on the Kalshi platform.
winnipegfreepress.comscience40 days ago
Kalshi Accepts Bets on Santos State of the Union; CFTC Launches Probe, Polymarket Cuts Ties
The prediction platform terminated its contract after Santos placed wagers on Kalshi about his own attendance at the February 24 State of the Union address. Federal regulators opened an insider-trading investigation.
Benzingafinance40 days ago
George Santos Says He Will Attend State of the Union, Profits When Plans Change; No Federal Probe
George Santos placed a bet on Kalshi that he would not attend President Trump's February State of the Union address after publicly stating he would be present. Rival platform Polymarket ended its paid influencer contract with Santos over the allegations.